Election 2024: Mystery solved, calculus complicated, math points to Tabke win

SHAKOPEE, Minn. (FOX 9) - The mystery of the missing ballots in Scott County seems to be solved, and now a judge will decide the calculus for control of the state House.

Breaking bad for GOP

Counting the uncounted: Republicans are challenging the 14-vote win by a Democratic incumbent in Scott County.

Twelve of the 20 people whose ballots disappeared testified in the trial and half of them say they voted for Rep. Brad Tabke, which means the math is breaking bad for Aaron Paul and he couldn’t possibly win.

But there’s still one possibility for the GOP.

So there's a chance?

Small probability: Without knowing who voted, University of Minnesota statistics professor Aaron Rendahl, PhD, says there’s a .0055% probability of challenger Aaron Paul gaining 14 votes on Rep. Tabke in a random sampling of 20 ballots from Scott County’s Precinct 10.

But there is a chance, and Republicans argue the probability is higher because the 20 ballots that disappeared during early voting were not random.

"If there’s reason to believe these probabilities are wrong then we also will have to conclude that his conclusions are wrong," said UT-Dallas political science professor Tom Brunell, PhD.

Vanishing votes

Solving the mystery: Shakopee’s now-former city clerk destroyed the ballots, likely by mistake, according to a Scott County investigation.

But election officials are pretty sure they know who the voters are – six of them testified Monday they voted for the Republican.

"Frankly, I feel like I’ve been robbed," said one of them, identified as Voter 17. "I feel like it puts the integrity of the election in question."

Six more testified Tuesday that they voted for the Democrat, making Tabke’s lead insurmountable.
"Did you vote in the election for House District 54A between Brad Tabke and Aaron Paul?" DFL attorney David Zoll asked the woman identified only as Voter 9.

"Yes I did," she said.

"Who did you vote for in that election?" Zoll asked.

"Brad Tabke," said Voter 9.

Five other voters whose identities are being kept confidential answered similarly.

"I voted for Brad Tabke," said Voter 5.

"Are you absolutely certain that you voted for Brad Tabke?" Zoll asked.

"Absolutely certain," said the voter. "I have his yard sign at my house."

Rep. Tabke attended both days of the trial while his challenger did not.

‘No doubt’

Tabke Tabulation: He told FOX 9 there’s mathematically no doubt he won, but he’ll absolutely take voters’ concerns about the integrity of this election to St. Paul next month.

"We need to make sure that as we're going forward, that the legislature is looking at what happened here and making sure, as we do with any sort of thing in the legislature, that we are looking at ways that we can improve," he said.

Beating the math?

GOP's Hope: But there’s still some chance for a GOP win.

They’ve argued the city clerk’s mistakes taint the entire election so the judge should order an entirely new election.

The ruling likely won’t come until early January.