When are we finally done with our subzero temperatures?
This is a question I get more than almost any other; when are we finally done with negative numbers? It’s also a question that I can’t really answer with resounding confidence.
Predicting the future continues to be one of the most complex things you can try to solve. There are literally billions if not trillions of variables. Some we know and understand, many we don’t. So when it comes to forecasting you have to keep in mind that the further into the future we try to predict, often times the less accurate we become because there are an increasing number of unknown variables. That said, we can often discern the overall Northern Hemisphere weather pattern several weeks in advance which can give us a general idea if extreme cold or extreme heat can be expected in any given timeframe. We can also look at climatology, or what has happened in past years, to give us an idea of what is more likely to happen this year.
When looking at climatology, the last several years have seen a large spread in when our final subzero temperature has been observed in the Twin Cities. 3 of the last 6 years, it has occurred in the first week of March. But there was one year that our arctic temps ended in the middle of January. Since 2000 though, our average last subzero day has occurred on February 17th… which of course is on Monday. Now, if our current forecast holds, we could actually get 2 more subzero low days this week. But looking at the overall pattern over the Northern Hemisphere the next couple of weeks, temps are more likely to be around or even above average… especially through the end of February. If this holds true, then it could easily be March before we get another scenario that ends with below average temperatures. And by that point, it becomes far more difficult for subzero temps to occur in the Twin Cities because of shorter nights and the higher daytime sun angle. So, this week could really be the last hurrah for truly arctic air.
While many of us certainly didn’t enjoy the frigid temps this past week, we can’t exactly complain too much considering we have seen just over half of the typical amount of subzero temperatures in the Twin Cities this year.
Not to mention, our coldest morning low has been -12, which is the 9th warmest low temperature for a season since records began back in 1872. If you remember last year, our winter season low temperature was -28°… so it could always be worse.