No freeze yet, but we should have hit 20 degrees by now

It has been an amazing few weeks of weather! October finished more than 4 degrees above average and now the first 10 or so days of November have been more than 10 degrees above average with little end in sight.  MSP Airport has still not hit the freeze mark, getting down to 36 degrees 4 different times so far in the fall, but the thermometer has fallen no further. 

This will be the latest freeze on record in the Twin Cities. We do have a shot at the freeze mark Saturday morning, but if it doesn’t happen then, it could be another week before we get another chance. 

While we’re basking in the warmth, let’s talk about how cold we should be already. The graph above shows different temperature thresholds for the metro. The average first freeze for the Twin Cities is October 8, so the 32-degree line rolls through the 50 percent probability on that date. 

To see what other temperatures we, in theory, should have had already, you just follow your 50 percent probability line because half of the time you get to that temperature before that date, and the other half you don’t… that’s why it’s the average. 

So according to our probability, we average our first 20-degree temperature on November 9. This means, in the average year, we should have already hit 20 at some point… and yet, this year, we can’t even hit freezing.

Crazy to think how cold we SHOULD be when it’s been so warm, so take our streak for granted cause it’s gonna end at some point!