Minnesota weather: Monday afternoon and evening updated severe weather timing

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - While the first round of rain has passed, there is a moderate (level 4 of 5) risk of severe weather in the afternoon and evening, including the possibility of hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. 

Moderate risk of severe storms on Monday

What to expect:

There is a chance of severe weather for areas of the Twin Cities and most of central and southern Minnesota into west central and southwestern Wisconsin on Monday. 

Portions of the state, including the metro, are at a level 4 (of 5) moderate risk for severe weather. An area of widespread severe weather with several tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning is likely during the afternoon or early evening.

Timeline of possible severe storms

Timeline:

Monday’s storms are a two-round event, with the first round including heavy rain, light hail and lightning, but no reported widespread damage. There’s a lull in activity heading into the afternoon, and while there likely won’t be much sunshine, there is a lot of warm air streaming in from the southern U.S., causing temperatures and dew points to climb.

Here's a timeline of what to expect with this afternoon's severe weather threat. 

First-round: The first round of storms rolled through the metro area sometime between 7a.m. and 10 a.m. These morning storms were not severe, but did produce some small hail, heavy rain, and lightning. 

Midday break: There's a break into the early afternoon, allowing the atmosphere to regroup and destabilize the second wave. Warm air streaming in from the southern U.S. is causing temperatures to warm into the mid-70s with dewpoints in the 60s.

Second-round: The greatest threat of severe storms is in the late afternoon/early evening. All severe modes are possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. 

The storms will likely pop up sometime between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. in western Minnesota and push eastward. There is a high likelihood that a line of storms will form, which would create straight-line gusty winds, and large hail. However, if any storm can stay isolated enough, the tornado threat will be maximized with large, long track tornadoes possible. 

The storms will likely push through the metro sometime around 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. and in the eastern viewing area around 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. The severe weather threat will wrap up before midnight.

The tornado threat is dependent on the structure of storms and some degree of sunshine on Monday afternoon:

• If discrete supercells are able to form ahead and away from the main squall line, then we can expect strong and intense tornadoes.
• If the storms quickly become linear, then we can expect weaker, short-lived tornadoes and straight-line winds to be embedded.

Tornado Watch 

What they're saying:

The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for southwest and west central Minnesota until 8 p.m. The NWS said a few tornadoes are likely, along with widespread hail up to the size of an apple and scattered wind gusts up to 80 mph. 

READ MORE: Tornado watch issued in SW Minnesota ahead of severe storms

Officials say they anticipate issuing another watch as the storms move east.

How to prepare for severe storms

What you can do:

This is a rare severe storm set up for Minnesota. Please take the time to ensure you can receive storm warnings on your person no matter where you are on Monday.

READ MORE: City of Minneapolis urges residents to be prepared for severe storms

Develop a severe weather safety plan. Make sure you have ways to receive warnings and updates. Review your safe places for shelter – whether you’re at home, at school, or in a public place. Have a communication plan with family and friends.

You can get real-time weather alerts about where you live and forecast updates on the FOX 9 Weather app. Click here to download it.

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