Minnesota weather: How unusual are warm October days in the Twin Cities?

It will feel like summer in the Twin Cities on Tuesday, with an expected high of 80 degrees. And while it may seem unusual to experience an 80-degree day in October in Minnesota, it’s not as uncommon as you might think.

Warm Octobers in Twin Cities

By the numbers:

The Twin Cities have had at least one 80-degree day in October in five of the last six years, with two of the last three years having the warmest temperatures on record for the month, dating back to 1872. 

But it’s not just the last few years that have been unusually warm. Roughly 60% of all years dating back to 2000 have had an 80-degree day in October, and 90% of all years since 2000 have had a 75-degree day or higher. 

Big picture view:

For some perspective, October experiences one of the largest temperature variations from start to finish that we experience here in Minnesota. The average highs in the Twin Cities to start the month in the upper 60s but fall to just 50 degrees by Halloween. But random, one-off warm temperatures aren't really anything new during the month. Nearly half of all years, dating all the way back to 1872, have a max temperature for October above 80° degrees.

Long-term trend

What we know:

However, fall in Minnesota and the Twin Cities has been trending much warmer over the last 20 years, with more than double the number of warm October days since 2006 compared to the prior 20 years. 

What's next:

There is no sign of this trend slowing with at least two 80-plus degree days in the forecast through the weekend and no sign of that changing in the years ahead either.

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