Heat, humidity and hefty rains this weekend thanks to tropical storm Bud

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Tropical storm Bud getting close to the Mexican coast in the Eastern Pacific Thursday morning

Summer time weather will get kicked into high gear over the weekend, just ahead of the official start to summer, thanks to the remnants of tropical storm Bud in the eastern Pacific. That’s right, a tropical storm on the other side of North America will be mostly responsible for our upcoming heat, humidity, and possible hefty rains.

I have long said that the atmosphere is all interconnected which means everything in our atmosphere directly and indirectly effects everything else.  This holds true as the leftovers, the remnants of a once very strong hurricane, will likely cross over Minnesota over the weekend.

This is due in large part to a strong ridge of high-pressure building across the central and eastern U.S. But tropical systems have both copious moisture and heat as they come out of the tropics.  This actually can force the jet stream further north (shown on the images as the blue arrowed line) further north, allowing substantial heat to build to its south.  This will likely spread widespread 90s across at least parts of Minnesota.  With plenty of moisture coming with it, as dewpoints get into the 70s, the heat index could top 105° in spots.

But Minnesota will also be on the north end of this ridge where a stationary front will set up.  This boundary will be the focal point for repeated rounds of thunderstorms, which will likely hold temperatures down on the north side of the boundary, while the heat builds to the south.  This means two things.

First, the northern side will likely be significantly cooler than the southern side with widespread 90s likely for southern and parts of central Minnesota, and much cooler, 70s and 60s likely for the north. 

Second, this will also bring several rounds of late day and overnight thunderstorms to areas near and around the frontal boundary which appears to be focused in northern and parts of central Minnesota.  This has the potential to bring widespread amounts of 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local amounts well over that possible.

The metro is currently on the southern fringes of the area most likely to see several rounds of storms.  This means that the north metro could very well end up with multiple inches of rain, where the south metro gets next to nothing.  If this frontal boundary though ends up in a different location, drastically different conditions are possible.

Either way, looks like a two to three day heat wave for the metro is a near certainty with rainfall chances a bit more up in the air… pun intended.  Stay tuned and stay cool!