Minnesota's new COVID-19 model projects 29,030 deaths, higher than previously expected

Minnesota's latest COVID-19 model shows a shorter time to peak epidemic, more intensive-care demand and more deaths. 

There will be 29,030 deaths caused by the pandemic and 3,397 ICU beds in use at the June 29 peak, the state's new modeling, dubbed "Version 3.0", found.

The scenario assumes a stay-at-home order through May 18--as Gov. Tim Walz has currently imposed--followed by a three-week "soft opening" and ongoing social distancing for vulnerable populations.

The scenario projects 1,441 deaths by the end of May. Minnesota has reported 638 confirmed deaths and nine probable deaths as of Wednesday.

Mitigation--social distancing and the stay-at-home order--have been less effective than expected, health officials say. 

Walz is expected to announce an extension to the peacetime emergency and some modifications to Minnesota's stay-at-home order Wednesday. The governor's 6 p.m. address will be broadcast live on FOX 9 and streaming live at fox9.com/live and the FOX 9 News App.