Twin Cities rounding out 4th warmest fall on record

The few chilly days we experienced in November just can't balance out the rest of a VERY warm three months leading to one of the warmest fall seasons we have ever seen in the Twin Cities. 

The months of September, October and November make up our climatological fall months, and in 2021, they will combine to give us the fourth warmest fall on record, dating all the way back to 1872. But, this occurrence just isn't a surprise. That's because the fall season continues to trend much warmer than it has in decades past.

If you look at our top 10 list a little closer, you'll notice that 2021 is not the only 21st century year on that list. In fact, seven of the top 10 warmest falls on record have all occurred since the year 2000. There is no other trend in Minnesota weather that has been as consistent as experiencing a warmer than average fall.

Looking at our new 30-year climate averages, that shifted from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 at the start of this year, is very telling. While there are several months that have trended warmer as of late, the fall season overall has seen the largest warming trend of the four seasons. This year was no different, fueled mostly by a near record warm October that finished more than 6 degrees above average. September was up 2.9 degrees from our 30-year climate average. 

November will finish roughly 2 degrees above average. That's one of the reasons November has felt so "cool," because the previous two months were just so warm. This could make December feel that much colder IF we manage some seasonable temperatures during the month.

It's certainly not gonna start out that way as the pattern across the continent is just not conducive to cold temperatures, as much of the true arctic cold is bottled up in the arctic itself. Here's a peek at expected daily highs when compared to average across the country through the week.

It does look like a slight shift in the jet stream this weekend will lead to more seasonable temps arriving in Minnesota as highs likely dip back to the 30s. But will we finally get some snow? I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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