Political expert, pollsters weigh in on health insurance subsidies

Published October 7, 2025 9:37 PM CDT

On day seven of the government shutdown, one of the most contentious debates in Washington could have lasting consequences for millions of Americans: whether to renew expiring health insurance subsidies.

Shutdown healthcare subsidies

What we know:

The disagreement centers on subsidies that help people who don’t receive health insurance through their job or a government program.

Instead, these individuals purchase coverage through healthcare marketplaces.

"This gets at the very heart of a philosophical or political dispute between Democrats and Republicans in the United States and whether or not the government has a role in providing subsidies for healthcare," Hamline University David Schultz told FOX 9 on Tuesday.

Although Republican lawmakers have pushed to let the subsidies expire, millions of Americans, particularly in Republican-leaning states, stand to lose if Congress fails to act. 

The subsidies were a key part of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and were later expanded under President Biden. Without renewal, they expire this year.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, around 2 million more Americans could become uninsured as early as next year if the subsidies lapse.

"This could drag out for a long period of time," Schultz said. "We know the last government shutdown was 35 days. At this point I don’t see any forces bringing the two sides together. There seems to be very minimal negotiation. The Democrats and Republicans have staked out their position on a very, very important issue for them. Unless something dramatically changes, I don’t see this getting resolved very quickly."

What's next:

Schultz sees one possible off-ramp from the stalemate.

"What I do think might eventually be the way the impasse gets ended is there is some type of agreement to extend some of these subsidies for a limited period of time," Schultz said. "But I don’t think Democrats and Republicans are there yet."

Dig deeper:

Polling released this week by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows most Americans support extending the enhanced subsidies.

About three-quarters of adults surveyed said Congress should act, including nine in ten Democrats, eight in ten independents, and six in ten Republicans.

PoliticsDonald J. TrumpMinnesotaHealth Care