Gophers' 2024 win total set at 4.5, would you go over or under?

Head coach P. J. Fleck of the Minnesota Golden Gophers huddles with his team during their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Memorial Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Getty Images)

The University of Minnesota football team starts a new era in 2024 with four West Coast teams joining the Big Ten Conference, and at least one sports betting website doesn’t like the Gophers’ odds to win next fall. last week released its over/under win totals for the 2024 season for conferences across all of college football. They have the Gophers at 4.5. Minnesota is coming off a 6-7 season, finishing the regular season 5-7 with four straight losses followed by a win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Most outsiders figured the Gophers might take a step back in 2024 with Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC coming to the Big Ten. Minnesota opens the season hosting North Carolina, which was a non-conference loss a year ago. The Gophers also host Nevada and Rhode Island in non-conference action.

Minnesota’s Big Ten home games are Iowa, USC, Maryland and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are always tough, and haven’t lost as a road team to Minnesota. The Gophers should beat the Terrapins, but Penn State went 7-2 in the Big Ten East last season. The Trojans are the unknown, but they went 8-5 last season, including 5-4 in Pac-12 play, and Caleb Williams is headed to the NFL.

The Gophers’ Big Ten road games are Michigan, UCLA, Illinois, Rutgers and Wisconsin. They got pounded by the Wolverines last year. You should be able to beat Illinois, Rutgers on the road will be a revenge game for Athan Kaliakmanis, but the Badgers at Camp Randall will be a tough test.

The season-opener against the Tar Heels is a toss-up, but it’s at home. You would think the Gophers can handle Rhode Island and Nevada, and they open the season with four straight games at Huntington Bank Stadium. Here’s a game-by-game pick of the schedule:

  • @ Michigan – LOSS
  • USC – WIN
  • @ UCLA – LOSS
  • @ Illinois – WIN
  • @ Rutgers – WIN
  • @ Wisconsin – LOSS

The bottom line is at first glance, 4.5 seems and feels low for a Gophers’ win total. But there’s a method to the madness when it comes to betting web sites. The reality is we won’t know a lot about the 2024 Gophers until after they face North Carolina.

P.J. Fleck is 50-34 in seven seasons at Minnesota. That includes a 29-32 mark in Big Ten play, and a 5-0 record in bowl games. Would you take the over or under of 4.5 wins for 2024?