Minnesota air quality forecast for summer 2026: MPCA expects active alert season

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) is predicting an active summer for air quality alerts, with multiple days likely impacted by wildfire smoke and elevated ozone levels. 

Air quality outlook for summer 2026

Local perspective:

Meteorologists with the MPCA said the state could see between 12 and 16 days affected by wildfire smoke, similar to conditions in 2024, and local fire activity could also become elevated. 

Officials predict four to six days when ozone levels may reach unhealthy levels for sensitive groups, slightly above the state’s historical average. Ozone pollution typically forms on hot, sunny days and is most likely to affect areas including the Twin Cities suburbs and southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.

The outlook is driven in part by a weather pattern influenced by a strong El Niño cycle, which is expected to bring warmer, drier conditions punctuated by periodic storms. Drought and below-average rainfall could lead to more sunshine, creating favorable conditions for ozone formation, according to the MPCA. 

What they're saying:

"This summer, conditions are lining up for several air quality alert days, so staying ‘air-aware’ is more important than ever," said MPCA Meteorologist Matt Taraldsen in a statement.

What you can do:

State agencies are urging residents to monitor daily air quality forecasts and take precautions when conditions worsen, such as limiting outdoor activity and staying indoors with filtered air.

Air quality alerts and forecasts are available on MPCA’s website.