Could Minnesota rain swing the vote? Here's what the research says
Minnesota Secretary of State's Office gives midterm election update
The Minnesota Secretary of State's Office, led by Steve Simon, gave an update Monday from the State Capitol of early voting turnout, election day expectations, and election result reporting in preparation for the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
(FOX 9) - Rain could meet voters on Tuesday, Nov. 3, but researchers say its impact on voter turnout may be smaller in Minnesota.
Election Day rain and turnout research
By the numbers:
On Monday in St. Paul, umbrellas dotted a 45-minute line for early voting. Voters may need cover again on Tuesday.
Three political science professors studied the impact of precipitation in presidential elections between 1940 and 2000. They found an inch above the usual rainfall decreased turnout by a little less than 1%, according to the research published in 2007.
"That may not sound like much, but in fact, in our simulations, which compared what we estimated turnout would have been during a clear and sunny day versus what was actually experienced, we found that in numerous close elections, weather could have been determinative of the outcome," said Dr. Brad Gomez, a Florida State University professor.
Big picture view:
Gomez said small changes in the weather could have changed American history.
He said the research found Richard Nixon might have beaten JFK with worse weather on Election Day in 1960, and Al Gore could have beaten George W. Bush in 2000 if it was not for rain in the Florida Panhandle.
Minnesota turnout and modern voting changes
Local perspective:
In Minnesota, the state's biggest midterm election turnout came in 2018, when rain and snow fell across the state.
Early voting has also become commonplace since 2000, reducing the chances for weather to change history.
"There used to be this argument also that said, well, Democrats are more what, fair weather voters, Republicans are more hardcore," said Dr. David Schultz, a Hamline University political science professor. "Maybe we're just a hardy group, but weather doesn't seem to affect our turnout very much whatsoever."
"Only about a third of American voters these days are voting on election day. And so that leaves fewer people to be affected by Election Day weather," said Gomez.
Schultz and Gomez agreed extreme weather events could still make an impact on Election Day, including snow in Atlanta or a blizzard in Minnesota. Ordinary rain may just mean more umbrellas.
The Source: FOX 9's Corin Hoggard report with interviews from Schultz and Gomez.