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Minneapolis overestimated money loss during ICE surge
The City of Minneapolis seems to have overestimated how much money was lost by small businesses in the city during the ICE surge. FOX 9's Soyoung Kim breaks it down.
MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - The City of Minneapolis released a report in February estimating losses experienced by restaurants and small businesses during Operation Metro Surge could be up to $81 million.
FOX 9 obtained sales tax data from the state to see how businesses did year-over-year. The sales tallies show a different picture.
Economic impact
The backstory:
Operation Metro Surge began on Dec. 1, 2025. The federal immigration crackdown in the Twin Cities and beyond went on for several months.
According to a court document, federal officials say at the height of the surge, there were roughly 3,000 federal officers in Minnesota as part of the operation.
During this time, some small businesses and residents reported disruptions to daily life and losses in revenue and/or wages.
By the numbers:
FOX 9 obtained sales tax data breaking down taxable sales comparisons across key industries statewide, including retail, hotel, and food service from December, January and February.
The most significant changes year-over-year were seen in restaurants and bars, particularly in Minneapolis.
Restaurants and bar sales
Restaurants and bars in Minneapolis did see some dips in taxable sales during the main three months of Operation Metro Surge compared with the year before. In December 2025, taxable sales were down by $17 million compared with the year before. This was the most significant difference across the data set looking at taxes collected.
In January, sales for Minneapolis restaurants and bars were down $9 million year-over-year. In February, sales were down $5 million.
In total, sales at food service and drinking places across the three months in Minneapolis were down by $31 million compared with the years prior. City estimates had put losses for restaurants, bars, and cafes up to nearly double this amount for just one of the months alone.
Overall, most of the other changes in sales in other industries and in St. Paul showed either smaller changes in revenue or showed growth.
According to the data, in contrast to the $31 million decrease in sales for Minneapolis restaurants and bars over those three months, St. Paul restaurants and bars saw a $1 million increase in revenue. However, Retail taxable sales in St. Paul across December, January, and February were down roughly $10 million compared with the same months the year before.
The data also breaks down taxable sales comparisons by Hennepin County and Ramsey County. Overall, the economic impact in the state’s two largest counties across the three key industries during this timeframe shows a roughly $55 million decrease in sales than the prior year.
What's next:
FOX 9 asked the City of Minneapolis about the estimates from earlier this year, a city spokesperson says a second assessment is underway.