Super El Niño 2026: What it means for Minnesota's fall, winter weather

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - A climate event so unusual it's driving scientists wild is already rewriting the record books — and it could reshape Minnesota's weather in the months ahead.

FOX 9 Meteorologist Cody Matz sat down with Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, senior climatologist at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, to break down what a super El Nino means, why this one is unlike anything seen in generations and what it could mean for weather across the state.

What is El Nino?

What we know:

El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that changes global weather patterns. When that stretch of ocean gets much warmer than usual, it shifts circulation patterns across the entire planet.

The name itself comes from Spanish, meaning "the child" or "the son," said Blumenfeld. It was first noticed by fishermen in Latin America — particularly in Peru and Ecuador — who observed it emerging around Christmas time and called it a kind of gift of the child, though Blumenfeld noted the name carries a sarcastic edge.

"These are areas that are really dry and all that extra warm water and warm air actually causes thunderstorms to form in areas that normally like coastal deserts," said Blumenfeld. "They don't have the drainage or the capacity to take in all of those thunderstorms."

The warming happens near the ocean's surface, not deep below it. Water along the coast of South America typically rises from depths of 10,000 to 15,000 feet or more, making it cold even though it sits right on the equator. During El Nino, that surface water warms by several degrees. According to Blumenfeld, there is a boundary layer in the ocean — called a thermocline — where the influence of surface winds and currents fades and deeper forces take over, which is why the warming stays concentrated near the surface.

Why this El Nino is different

Why you should care:

What makes this particular event stand out is timing. Scientists track El Nino using a specific stretch of the eastern Pacific called the Nino 3.4 region, considered the most important indicator of El Nino or La Nina activity. According to Blumenfeld, all previous records for the warmest water ever measured in that region had been set one to three months later in the year — typically in November or December.

"We've already kind of broken the daily temperature record in the region that's most important," said Blumenfeld, "months ahead of when those records are normally set."

Matz compared it to the Twin Cities recording its hottest temperature ever in May instead of July — and Blumenfeld confirmed that analogy holds up.

"We'd be scratching our heads, wondering what was going to happen as summer came," said Blumenfeld.

The surge in temperatures appears to have happened in April or May, according to Blumenfeld, when the ocean changes and the atmospheric patterns finally locked together. He described it as the El Nino becoming "fully coupled" — the point at which the ocean and atmosphere sync up and the event operates like a machine.

"The gears are turning and the wheels are spinning," said Blumenfeld.

Experts at the Climate Prediction Center and other national and international institutions say it would be almost unheard of for water temperatures in the region to stop rising at this point, according to Blumenfeld. The El Nino is still developing.

Hurricanes and the ripple effect

Local perspective:

Minnesota doesn't get direct hurricane strikes, but Pacific storms can still reach the state in indirect ways. According to Blumenfeld, when a hurricane's energy drifts northward toward Baja California, it often gets pulled into passing weather systems across the southwestern United States. That leftover heat and moisture can change how cold fronts, warm fronts and low-pressure systems behave — adding fuel to storms far from where the hurricane originally formed.

"It kind of can fundamentally mess up sort of normal fall patterns," said Blumenfeld.

He pointed to a major flood in southeastern Minnesota in 2007 as an example. That event produced the state's 24-hour rainfall record, with some areas receiving 15 to 18 inches of rain over 36 to 48 hours, triggering landslides and widespread flooding. According to Blumenfeld, some of that moisture came from the remnants of a Pacific tropical weather system called Aaron, which had drifted over the southwestern U.S. before its moisture got pulled into a stationary frontal system over Minnesota.

"You have a kind of a normal flooding scenario in Minnesota that was then juiced up by tropical moisture from a leftover tropical weather system," said Blumenfeld.

Matz noted that even if Minnesota doesn't receive that moisture directly, a storm dumping extreme rainfall on Kansas or Missouri can shift the entire weather pattern across the northern part of the country — one reason long-range forecasting during strong El Nino seasons is especially difficult.

What we don't know:

Whether Minnesota will see a Halloween blizzard or other extreme weather events this fall remains uncertain. Predicting that kind of outcome three weeks out is not possible given how many variables — including Pacific hurricane remnants — can shift the pattern at any time. Strong El Ninos often bring warmer-than-average winters to Minnesota, but that does not rule out significant cold or snow events.