More HEAVY rain possible this week

- The first half of September has been quite mild and quite wet in many cases, and now we may be stepping that up a notch… in some cases, several notches.  The overall pattern this week looks conducive for some episodes of very heavy rain.  Warm and moist southern flow will be persistent at nearly every level of the atmosphere allowing moisture to pool over the Upper Midwest.  Combine that moisture with several different storms systems expected to ride the jet stream through the area, and you have a recipe for some hefty rains and the potential for flooding.

Right now, forecast models are picking up on this general trend, which is the image you see above.  The areas circled in yellow in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin appear to be the spots with the best opportunity for heavy rain from the middle of the week, all the way through the weekend.

Other forecasters are also seeing this potentially drenching week with the Weather Prediction Center issuing the forecast below…

So this forecast is a lot like what the Storm Prediction Center issues for severe weather; they issue a slight, moderate, or high risk for flash flooding based off computer model guidance.  In the “day 3” scenario, which is Wednesday, they have issued their highest risk category they can this far in advance, which is a moderate risk.  This means that there is a “moderate risk” of experiencing flash flooding in the red shaded areas.  This includes much of the metro and the Mississippi River Valley straight down to Illinois.  This is one of the few times I have seen this issued for our area so some concern is certainly there.  Stay tuned to for the very latest.

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