Nearing the latest first hard freeze ever

- As we head through the middle of November, typically it’s becoming quite chilly. Average highs are now dropping into the upper 30s and average lows are into the mid 20s.  In many years, teens have been widespread on more than one occasion already.  But this year has been far different.  While much of the state has experienced a few mornings in the 20’s, the metro has yet to hit those 20’s.  The lowest temperature so far has been 31°, with a freeze occurring just twice.  That is EXTREMELY unusual! We haven’t even had a hard freeze yet which is when the temperature dips to 28°.  IF we can get passed the 21st (Saturday), it would be the latest in the fall season that we have ever had our first fall hard freeze.  The current record is from November 21, 1931.  It’s been so mild that many cities across the U.S. that are typically far warmer than us have seen temperatures dip under our current fall low.  Check them out…

Much of the Upper Midwest has seen that coveted hard freeze from Fargo to Chicago to Denver.  But the more impressive numbers are cities in the northeast and even parts of the south that have seen colder temperatures than the Twin Cities so far this fall with Albuquerque, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis coming in under the metro.  Even Boston and Nashville have seen an equivalently cool morning.  But this is all about to change.  Once our current very rainy 3 day period goes by, the exiting storm will pull in much colder air straight out of the southern Arctic region.  This should allow temperatures to fall into the 20’s by the end of the week.  Check out the difference in the pictures below…

The first image shows Upper Midwest mid-level temperatures on Monday.  Yes, these are temperatures from 850mb (about 5000) but they directly correlate to what happens at the surface.  Very warm looking colors on Monday, but by Thursday, the cooler weather dives in and drives temperatures to their coldest levels since March.  Overnight lows even in the metro could drop to the low 20’s with parts of the state into the low teens.  So get ready for more typical latter half of November temps.

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