KMSP - What a beautiful weekend! With the exception of the little hiccup late Sunday as showers and storms rolled through, it was nearly picture perfect… sunshine, low humidity and temperatures near normal. But that will all come crashing down this week as humidity levels rise, clouds increase, and the chances for storms sky rockets by late Tuesday. We will also face the threat of some widespread heavier rain before Wednesday and Thursday are over.
It all stems from a Tropical Depression that continues to push into northern Mexico and southern Arizona early Monday. The image below shows the atmospheric water vapor for the U.S. Monday morning.
Copious moisture can be found with this tropical disturbance. The added large cut off low pressure near Mexico is funneling this system along with a plume of moisture straight toward the Upper Midwest. The heavy rain will start in Arizona and New Mexico Monday before moving further inland Tuesday. By Wednesday, whatever moisture is leftover will move somewhere over the Upper Midwest setting the stage for some soaking rains for those unlucky (or lucky, depending on your point of view) enough to get therm.
This map shows the general overall forecast precipitation swath with this system. Makes it easy to see where the rains are most likely to fall between now and Friday morning. While widespread rain is likely, how much rain is still to be determined. That’s because, a lot like with any storm system, intensity and storm track play big roles who gets what. But what makes this one different is it is moving true tropical moisture up from the Pacific which could, and most likely will lead, to flash flooding in some areas, especially the desert southwest and areas around here that have already seen a pretty wet few weeks. The little bullseyes of color show the potential for heavy rain is possible from border to border.