Bye bye El Nino, hello La Nina

- The global weather pattern that has been affecting the United States over the last 9 months is coming to an end, and now its sister is likely to take hold.  El Nino, the phenomena in the Pacific Ocean that allows the water near and along the Equator to become much warmer than normal, is winding down.  This warm water has global affects because it affects the atmosphere above it.  And with the atmosphere acting like a fluid, if one spot is affected by something different, then the whole system will feel it as well.  The ocean waters in the Equatorial region of the Pacific have been exceedingly warm all winter long, but over the last several weeks, that has changed.  Here are the sea surface temperatures as compared to normal across the Pacific in mid-February…

Now look at them again at the end of April…

While some warm water remains, it has really spread across the Pacific, and even some pockets of sub average temperatures are showing up right along the Equator which may indicate that stronger than normal upwelling could be taking place.  This is likely just the precursor for continued cooling in the Pacific as everything is pointing to a global La Nina.  The following graph shows sea surface temperatures for strong El Nino years including 2015-2016. Just about every single year, we have gone from strong El Nino conditions to a strong La Nina in just a few months’ time…

Not convinced?  This may help… here is the current forecast from all of the multi-billion dollar computer models…

ALL. SLOPING. DOWN.  So I’d say it’s almost a certainty at this point, barring something completely unforeseen and totally outrageous.  So what does a La Nina mean for our weather the rest of the year?  Well, the “average” La Nina, if there is such a thing, gives us a colder and dryer winter.  But, that is a total crap shoot.


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